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Dollar a tad softer as markets wait for Fed
  + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Japan's yen was at 158.05 per dollar, up nearly 0.2% in quiet trading with Tokyo markets closed for the first of the country's Golden Week holidays. "The bar is pretty high for a sustained hawkish surprise, which would in turn lift yields," he said, referring to the Fed. "The BOJ disappointment might be transcribed onto the FOMC insofar that they may be more undecided than decidedly hawkish." The Fed is seen holding its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.25%-to-5.5% at the April 30-May 1 meeting. Markets are also on guard for any intervention by Japanese authorities to contain the yen's nearly 11% fall this year.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Vishnu Varathan, Sterling Organizations: U.S, Bank of, Mizuho Bank, Market Committee Locations: Japan, Tokyo, Bank of Japan, Asia, Singapore
Japanese inflation picks up as BOJ pivot bets grow
  + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Core inflation had slowed to 2.8% in September from 3.1% in August, the first time it was below 3% since August 2022. Many analysts see the yield control policy as becoming obsolete as the central bank has made the 10-year yield target more and more flexible, sending the JGB yield closer to 1%. However, the BOJ has brushed aside such speculation, saying that the current global cost-push inflation is not sustainable. The latest consumer inflation data is among indicators the BOJ will eye at its two-day policy meeting ending on Dec. 19, its last scheduled review this year. Japanese firms, too, are closely watching inflation data as the government is pressing them to raise wages to help employees deal with the higher cost of living.
Persons: Androniki, mths BOJ, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Takahiko Wada, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO
Japanese national flag is hoisted atop the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan September 20, 2023. If the BOJ pulls interest rates above zero for the first time in years, banks' lending margins could rise. Steve Donzé, deputy head of investment at Pictet Asset Management in Tokyo, said he had also been buying Japanese bank stocks. BOND PAINJapanese inflation means bond investors could suffer. But investors are cautious about this so-called yield curve control policy ending as the BOJ is forced to tighten monetary policy.
Persons: Issei Kato, Shigeka Koda, Koda, Steve Donzé, Junichi Inoue, Janus Henderson, James Halse, Warren Buffett, David Hogarty, Jon Day, Grégoire Pesques, Amundi, Pictet's Donzé, Naomi Rovnick, Kevin Buckland, Dhara Ranasinghe, Jane Merriman Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, LONDON, Asia Investment, Kosaido Holdings, Kyushu Financial, Pictet, Management, Platinum Asset Management, Global, Bank of America, Tokyo Stock Exchange, Dublin, Newton Investment Management, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO, Singapore, Sydney, United States, Europe, London
She noted that a flexible YCC "may be conducive to a more controlled yield rise since there's no more line in the sand to go against." Elsewhere, Kuroda wrote in notes to CNBC that Japanese banks "remain in focus as a beneficiary" of BOJ's interest rate normalization. A more flexible interest rate on BOJ operations may allow for a controlled rise in long-term yields, Kuroda said in notes to CNBC. "This might make it easier for banks to buy or reinvest JGB portfolio at higher yields." Japanese bank stock picks Goldman Sachs continues to name conviction list stock Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) and Mizuho as its top picks from the Japanese banking sector.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, BOJ, Makoto Kuroda, CNBC's, Kuroda, Yuka Azami, MUFG, Goldman, CNBC's Naman Tandon, Lim Hui Jie Organizations: CNBC, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Mizuho, Tokyo Stock
Dollar tracks Treasury yields lower as Fed stays on hold
  + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar fell broadly on Thursday, tracking a slide in U.S. Treasury yields as markets grew more convinced the Federal Reserve was done with its aggressive monetary policy tightening cycle after it left rates unchanged. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that a recent market-driven rise in Treasury bond yields, home mortgage rates and other financing costs could have their own impact on the economy as long as they persist. The dollar edged broadly lower alongside U.S. Treasury yields which touched multi-week lows in early Asia trade. "This could take some time to develop and is one reason we are likely to see higher rates for longer." The move lower in the dollar brought some respite for the yen, though it remained on the weaker side of 150 per dollar.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Wells, Jay Bryson, Lon Erickson, Tom Kenny Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Fed, New, U.S, Traders, Thornburg Investment Management, Bank of Japan's, ANZ, Bank of Locations: U.S, Wall, Asia, New Zealand, Wells Fargo
Demand for US bonds from foreign buyers will remain strong, according to Goldman Sachs. Goldman said it expects a solid appetite from foreigners for US bonds even as Japan phases out its yield curve control policy. AdvertisementAdvertisementForeign buyers will continue to have a strong appetite for US bonds, even as Japan begins to phase out its yield curve control policy, according to Goldman Sachs. Meanwhile, the US corporate bond yields are currently just below 6%, compared to just under 1% for Japanese corporate bonds. And any selling pressure in the US bond market by foreign investors would have to be driven by a confluence of different factors.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, , that's Organizations: Service Locations: Japan
The 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose 2 basis points (bps) to 0.970%, a level last seen in May 2013, before retreating to 0.960% immediately after the BOJ announced an emergency bond-purchase operation. Tsuruta sees the tweak as a step toward the BOJ eventually exiting from negative interest rates policy, which he expects around the beginning of next year at the earliest. The two-year JGB yield had ticked up to 0.160%, while the five-year yield reached 0.480%, levels not seen since 2011. On the superlong end, the 20-year JGB yield rose to its highest since July 2013 at 1.735%. The 30-year JGB yield was up 3 bps at 1.905%.
Persons: Kim Kyung, Keisuke Tsuruta, Mitsubishi UFJ, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley, Tsuruta, James Malcolm, YCC, Malcolm said, Brigid Riley, Vidya Ranganathan, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Rights, Mitsubishi, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, UBS, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, London
The yen's key drivers are so weak the currency is comparable to the Turkish lira and Argentine peso, Deutsche Bank said. The country's balance of payments are also weak as the Bank of Japan has triggered capital flight. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe Japanese yen's fundamentals are so weak the currency is comparable to some of the world's worst performing tenders, a Deutsche Bank note said on Wednesday. "A simple glance of the yen's drivers - yields and external accounts - puts the Japanese yen in the same league as the Turkish lira and Argentine peso," George Saravelos, the bank's global head of foreign exchange research, wrote in the report. Intervention by the Bank of Japan in currency markets won't help the yen, and may actually backfire.
Persons: , George Saravelos, Saravelos Organizations: Argentine, Deutsche Bank, Bank of, Service, Bank of Japan Locations: Japan, Bank of Japan
BOJ modifies yield curve control, re-defines long-term rate cap
  + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
An office employee walks in front of the bank of Japan building in Tokyo, Japan, April 7, 2023. REUTERS/Androniki Christodoulou Acquire Licensing RightsTOKYO, Oct 31 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan modified its bond yield control again on Tuesday by re-defining 1.0% as an "upper bound" with room for allowance, rather than a rigid cap. "The BOJ will regard the upper bound of 1.0% for the 10-yaer Japanese government bond (JGB) yield as a reference" and continue large-scale bond buying and nimble market operations, the central bank said in a statement. As widely expected, the BOJ maintained a 0.1% interest charged on financial institutions' excess reserves parked with the central bank, and a 0% target for the 10-year government bond yield set under its yield curve control (YCC) policy. Reporting by Leika Kihara and Tetsushi Kajimoto Editing by Chang-Ran KimOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Androniki, Leika Kihara, Chang, Ran Kim Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Japan, Tokyo
BOJ chooses slow path out of zero-rate limbo
  + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Peter Thal Larsen | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
REUTERS/Susana Vera Acquire Licensing RightsHONG KONG, Oct 31 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The Bank of Japan (8301.T) is taking the long road out of zero-interest rate limbo. On the face of it, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and his colleagues made few policy changes at their latest meeting. The short-term interest rate remains negative, while the official yield target for 10-year Japanese government bonds is unchanged at 0%. However, the real challenge for Ueda is when to end the era of negative short-term interest rates. The BOJ’s nine-member board maintained its target for short-term interest rates of -0.1%.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Susana Vera, Haruhiko Kuroda, Ueda, , Antony Currie, Thomas Shum Organizations: Japan, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, REUTERS, Reuters, Bank of Japan, U.S, Thomson Locations: Marrakech, Morocco, HONG KONG, Japan
Japan's central bank is allowing more flexibility in its yield curve control policy, shifting the language used to describe the upper bound of the 10-year Japanese government bond yield. In its release, the Bank of Japan said the target level of the 10-year JGB yield will be held at 0%, but will take the upper bound of 1% "as a reference," it said in the latest release. In July, the BOJ effectively widened its yield target band on the 10-year JGB by 50 basis points to 1% on either side. However, the bank indicated it will commit to allowing yields to fluctuate in the range of around plus and minus 0.5 percentage points from its 0% target level that was instituted last December. Separately, the bank continued to hold its short term policy rate at -0.1%, even as core inflation in the country exceeded the stated 2% target for 18 consecutive months.
Organizations: Bank of Japan, CPI
Passersby walk past an electric monitor displaying the Japanese yen exchange rate against the U.S. dollar outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan October 4, 2023. On Tuesday, the 10-year JGB yield jumped 6.5 basis points to 0.955%, its highest since May. "Markets seem to assume that the ceiling will be lifted by another 50 basis points, but I think the possibility of another doubling (i.e. The dollar index , which measures U.S. currency against six rivals, rose 0.104%. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 1.1 basis points to 4.888%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was up 0.7 basis points to 5.042%.
Persons: Issei Kato, Nicholas Chia, Chia, Sterling, Hong, HSI, Jerome Powell, Gary Dugan, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Lincoln Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Rights, Bank of, Nikkei, Standard Chartered, Japan's Nikkei, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, BOJ, Federal Open Markets, Dalma, Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Rights SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, Shanghai, U.S, Singapore
But it's also likely the BOJ have their finger on the intervention button to cap any runaway rally on USD/JPY." Nevertheless, this is working in a way to increase the volatility of the global rates market. This means it will still have a certain distance until the BOJ exit from the negative rate policy." "A yield cap isn't a yield cap if you change it every time the market gets close." The Bank of Japan could lift the negative policy rate to zero over the coming year.
Persons: Kim Kyung, KYLE RODDA, MATT SIMPSON, JPY, it's, NOMURA, They've, TONY SYCAMORE, normalisation, TAKAYUKI MIYAJIMA, ROB CARNELL, they're, JEFF NG, TOM NASH, OMORI, SHOTARO KUGO, me, IZURU KATO, MARCEL THIELIANT, today's, FREDERIC NEUMANN, CHRISTOPHER WONG, BOJ's, Sherry Jacob, Phillips Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Bank of, Nikkei, SAXO, SONY, ING, UBS, CHIEF, DAIWA, OF, HSBC, Global, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Bank of Japan, MELBOURNE, BRISBANE, SINGAPORE, TOKYO, U.S, SYDNEY, ASIA, PACIFIC, CHIEF JAPAN, stagflation, OF ASIA, YCC, HONG KONG
Japan 10-year government bond yields crept closer to a 11-year high on Monday as the Bank of Japan kicks off its two-day monetary policy meeting. Yields for the 10-year JGB climbed 2.29% on Monday to 0.893%, its highest level since it briefly reached 0.895% on Oct. 26. Before that, the last time the yield was at this level was in April 2012. In July, the BOJ effectively broadened the yields permissible on the 10-year JGB by 50 basis points to 1% either side. Read CNBC's preview of the Bank of Japan's policy meeting here.
Persons: — Lim Hui Jie Organizations: Bank of Japan, Bank of Locations: Japan
The BOJ sets a target of around 0% for the 10-year yield under YCC. Since then, rising global bond yields and persistent inflation have put the BOJ in a tight spot with the 10-year JGB yield threatening to breach the 1% cap. The 10-year bond yield rose to a fresh decade high of 0.955% on Tuesday. Sources told Reuters last week the BOJ could debate further tweaks to YCC at the Oct. 30-31 meeting to relax its grip on the 10-year yield. The BOJ is widely expected to maintain the 0% target for the 10-year yield and that for short-term rates at -0.1%.
Persons: BOJ, Ueda, Ataru Okumura, Kazuo Ueda, Leika Kihara, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of, Nikkei, Nikko Securities, Reuters, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Bank of Japan, Japan
Policymakers meet eight times a year to decide on the bank's monetary policy position, updating its economic outlook at every other meeting. At these meetings, the BOJ policymakers decides on its monetary policy position, which then dictates how the central bank taps the money market. To absorb funds, the Japanese central bank issues and sells bills. Here's how the Bank of Japan conducts its monetary policy. "The objective of the Bank's monetary policy is achieving price stability, which is its mission as stipulated by law.
Persons: Javier Ghersi, it's, , Price, Kazuo Ueda Organizations: Getty Images Bank of Japan, Investors, Bank of Japan, Bank of, of, Japan Society of Monetary Locations: Japan, Tokyo, Bank of Japan
Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. U.S. Treasuries were subdued as investors hunkered down for a European Central Bank meeting and U.S. GDP data later in the week. "Potentially there are two camps out fighting around 150, so that's why dollar-yen doesn't move from here," Yamamoto said. While there was some speculation the BOJ might once again tweak its yield-curve policy band at a scheduled policy review next week, the BOJ had also shown it will not let domestic yields rise sharply, he said. Yields dipped on Friday after the BOJ announced more loans to encourage financial institutions to buy JGBs.
Persons: Florence Lo, Jerome Powell, Masafumi Yamamoto, Yamamoto, Sean Callow, Shri Navaratnam, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Rights, Hamas, United, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Mizuho Securities, Westpac, Brent, ECB, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, Asia, Gaza, United States, U.S, Tokyo, East
The BOJ remains a global outlier having maintained ultra-loose monetary stimulus even as major central banks elsewhere rapidly raised interest rates to fight rampant inflation. Meanwhile, rising U.S. bond yields are pulling their Japanese counterparts higher, complicating the BOJ's task of keeping local interest rates low. Among ideas that could be discussed would be to raise the ceiling for the 10-year bond yield beyond 1.0%, or steps that water down the BOJ's commitment to defend a set yield level, the sources said. "If the 10-year JGB yield rises to around 0.9%, the BOJ may need to take action," such as by raising the 1% cap, she added. In a Reuters poll in September, most analysts said they expect the BOJ to abandon YCC by the end of 2024.
Persons: Issei Kato, BOJ, YCC, Kazuo Ueda, Naomi Muguruma, Mitsubishi UFJ, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley, Ueda, Leika Kihara, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Treasury, Nikkei, Mitsubishi, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, YCC, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO
Japanese national flag is hoisted atop the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan September 20, 2023. The benchmark JGB yield climbed to 0.845% right at the start of the trading day, its highest since July 2013, after revisiting peaks the previous day as well. But it eased immediately after the BOJ announcement, and was last 1.0 basis point (bp) lower than Thursday's closing level at 0.83%. The BOJ caps the 10-year yield at 1% under its yield curve control (YCC) policy, after doubling it in a surprise move at the end of July. "If the yen crosses 150, it would of course be more difficult for the BOJ to intervene in the JGB market.
Persons: Issei Kato, Masayuki Kichikawa, YCC, Fumio Kishida, Brigid Riley, Kevin Buckland, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Rights, Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S
On Friday, the Bank of Japan intervened in the Japanese government bond (JGB) market as the 10-year JGB yield touched a decade high. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) skidded 0.8% to a fresh low since November last year, bringing the weekly loss to a sizeable 3%. "World leaders continue to trek to the Middle East to – if nothing else — delay the onset of any further hostility," said Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at capital.com. Oil prices are headed for the second weekly gain on supply fears from an escalating regional conflict in the Middle East. "Now we’re talking about not just the Ukraine-Russia conflict, that front, but now you have another front, that’s in the Middle East that has to be satisfied...
Persons: Jerome Powell, Hong, HSI, Joe Biden, Israel, Kyle Rodda, Brent, Powell, Quincy Krosby, Stella Qiu, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: SYDNEY, Bank of Japan, Tokyo's Nikkei, Elon, U.S, LPL, Washington, Thomson Locations: East, Middle, Asia, Pacific, Japan, China, Iran, Yemen, Israel, Ukraine, Russia, U.S
[1/2] A man walks past a signboard of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group and MUFG Bank at its headquarters in Tokyo, Japan April 3, 2018. Globally bonds have been heavily sold for weeks - prompting the Bank of Japan to step in to steady the JGB market - as investors reckon on interest rates around the world staying elevated. The lingering concerns, coupled with the prospect of further central bank policy tweaks, are likely to keep investors on guard against buying JGBs," he said. Even if the BOJ raises short-term rates, it will probably have to maintain the YCC framework to avoid any abrupt rise in long-term interest rates, Seki said. The BOJ will have no choice but to engage with long-term rates "because the complete removal of a target band could cause volatility in yield curve and sharp spikes in long-term interest rates," he said.
Persons: Toru Hanai, Hiroyuki Seki, Seki, Makiko Yamazaki, Ritsuko Shimizu, Leika Kihara, Muralikumar Organizations: Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, MUFG Bank, REUTERS, Rights, Bank of, Bank of Japan, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S
[1/2] A man looks at an electric monitor displaying the Japanese yen exchange rate against the U.S. dollar and Nikkei share average outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan October 4, 2023. While money flow data suggest there was no intervention, the price action was enough to keep yen bears at bay. Rather, the remarks by Kanda were likely a fresh warning shot to markets that authorities could step in any time - even if yen moves were moderate, they say. Intervention isn't the best tool to arrest steady yen declines anyway, said former currency diplomat Hiroshi Watanabe. "There's no point intervening when yen moves are gradual," Watanabe told Reuters.
Persons: Issei Kato, Masato Kanda, that's, Kanda, Tokyo's, Atsushi Takeuchi, They're, Daisaku Ueno, Mitsubishi UFJ, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley, Hiroshi Watanabe, Watanabe, Leika Kihara, Tetsushi, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: U.S ., Nikkei, REUTERS, Tokyo, Authorities, Bank of, U.S . Federal Reserve, Treasury, Mitsubishi, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO, United States
[1/2] Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. The dollar fell as low as 147.30 yen versus the Japanese currency, after hitting a one-year high of 150.165. Tuesday's low in the dollar was its weakest level in three weeks versus the Japanese currency. The euro dropped to a roughly two-month low against the yen of 154.39 yen and was last down 0.7% to 155.99. That earlier drove the dollar higher as real interest rates factor in inflation.
Persons: Florence Lo, Shunichi Suzuki, Colin Asher, Sterling, Marc Chandler, Jeremy Stretch, JGB, Herbert Lash, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Lucy Raitano, Joice Alves, Marguerita Choy, Sharon Singleton Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Japan, Japanese Finance, New York Federal Reserve, Mizuho, Bannockburn Global, U.S . Labor, Labor, Survey, CIBC Capital Markets, UST, Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of Australia's, Swiss, Thomson Locations: Japan, London, Bannockburn, New York
[1/2] Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. The sharp move lower suggested the Bank of Japan had intervened in the market to keep the yen from falling further. "It has all the hallmarks of intervention in all honesty," said Michael Brown, market analyst at Trader X in London. "The continued uptrend in UST-JGB encouraged the 150 to be breach in the wake of the better-than-expected JOLTS data. The dollar slipped 0.51% against the yen to 149.08 after hitting 150.165 on the JOLTS report.
Persons: Florence Lo, Michael Brown, Marc Chandler, Jeremy Stretch, JGB, Stretch, Shunichi Suzuki, Wei Liang Chang, Russia's rouble, Herbert Lash, Brigid Riley, Alun John, Joice Alves, Kevin Buckland, Marguerita Choy, Sharon Singleton Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Bank of Japan, New York Federal Reserve, Trader, Bannockburn Global, CIBC Capital Markets, UST, Finance, DBS, Strong U.S, Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of Australia's, Swiss, Thomson Locations: London, Bannockburn, New York, United States, Europe, Tokyo
Dollar weakens against the yen after yen breaches key 150 level
  + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The Japanese yen has fallen about 25% year-to-date against the greenback. The sharp move lower suggested the Bank of Japan had intervened in the market to keep the yen from falling further. "The continued uptrend in UST-JGB encouraged the 150 to be breach in the wake of the better-than-expected JOLTS data. The dollar slipped 0.51% against the yen to 149.08 after hitting 150.165 on the JOLTS report. The dollar index, which tracks the unit against six peers, was up 0.13% at 107.16, at its highest since November.
Persons: Michael Brown, Marc Chandler, Jeremy Stretch, JGB, Stretch, Shunichi Suzuki, Wei Liang Chang, Russia's rouble Organizations: greenback, The, Bank of Japan, New York Federal Reserve, Trader, Bannockburn Global, U.S, CIBC Capital Markets, UST, Finance, DBS, Strong U.S, Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of Australia's, Swiss Locations: London, Bannockburn, New York, United States, Europe
Total: 25